Ok, I'm going on the record. Obviously, I WANT McCain to win. So I freely admit to a whole lot of bias. I will also admit to not being any kind of pollster. I'm just a guy with a computer and a blogger account. So what did you pay to get in here?!? Here's what I think about this election. I think it's more than obvious that the polls are skewed this year (as in many past years) in order to help drive the election process. I have been saying all year that unless Obama is up by 10-15 points in the polls, he can't win. This is due to what is called the "Bradley Effect," named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley. Bradley lost the 1982 California Governor's race despite being ahead in the polls. According to Wikipedia, "some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation." Understand, these people may or may not be actual racists, they're just afraid of being judged as racists. In this election during the primaries, Obama was way ahead going into the New Hampshire primaries and lost to Hillary. (I'm still convinced this had less to do with the Bradley Effect and more to do with the inability to poll the voting preferences of people in Massachusetts and New York for the New Hampshire primary, but I digress. . .) The same thing could happen here. A combination of falsely inflated polls and Bradley Effect could combine for a McCain shocker.
So let's look at today's polls. The national polls have the race a virtual dead heat right now. So just from that standpoint alone my prediction goes to McCain. But let's look deeper. I went to RealClearPolitics. com and looked at the most recent state polls. States that are solidly for Obama have him ahead by more than 10 points. Let's concede those states. That gives Obama 238 electoral votes. If my prediction holds up, that's all he'll get. McCain would win with 300, not only a shocking come-from-behind victory but a virtual landslide! If Obama can mange to win even half of the leaning states he has (73 electoral votes), he can win the election with 275 electoral. BTW, 270 are needed to win. It would be a narrow win, but well within reach if the polls are to be believed.
So, for the record, I'm sticking with my original prediction: McCain 300-238.
We are just a few days away and I believe this is a turnout election. That is to say, whoever turns out to vote will win. (Ok, maybe they're all turnout elections!) But it is important not to be discouraged and go out and vote no matter who you are for. Let the people speak and let their voice be heard and we will see if I am right about these polls.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
WorldWatch - October 5, 2008 - Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights? - The Ornery American
WorldWatch - October 5, 2008 - Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights? - The Ornery American
Wow! Does this guy hit it out of the park!! He not only takes on the Obama press but also those who continually blame Bush over Iraq. And this guy's a Democrat!! He calls himself a Moynihan Democrat and praises Zell Miller for trying to save the Democrat Party. Finally a journalist calling out the so-called journalists in the rest of the media. I hope this is as far as the pendulum is going to swing! Maybe we can get back to having honest disagreements with each other over issues without having to defend the very nature of our democracy! (too many !'s?!?)
Wow! Does this guy hit it out of the park!! He not only takes on the Obama press but also those who continually blame Bush over Iraq. And this guy's a Democrat!! He calls himself a Moynihan Democrat and praises Zell Miller for trying to save the Democrat Party. Finally a journalist calling out the so-called journalists in the rest of the media. I hope this is as far as the pendulum is going to swing! Maybe we can get back to having honest disagreements with each other over issues without having to defend the very nature of our democracy! (too many !'s?!?)
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Oil Prices Sticker Shock!
Well, here's something I don't hear ANYONE talking about. Yesterday, I filled my gas tank with regular unleaded gasoline. It was the lowest price I have seen in months: $3.059. Imagine my astonishment when I drove past the same station today and the price had dropped to $2.939!! A $.12 drop in just a day. (OK, I'm sure you can do math.) For the record, I don't remember the last time I paid less than $3/gallon for gas. It may have been earlier this year, but I don't think so. That price drop is the most staggering drop in price I have ever seen. I'm hearing a lot of talk about how the price of oil is coming down due to decreased demand. I believe this is definitely part of the reason, just judging from my own experience. I definitely stopped driving so much and started planning my routes a lot better so I could get a lot of errands done on one trip. If you multiply my experience by millions, I'm sure there is a lot less demand out there. But I believe that there are other market forces at work. On September 30, the US ban on offshore drilling expired. There is NO will in Congress right now to reinstate it. I believe this is the primary reason for the dramatic drop in price over the last few weeks. And I believe I can prove it!
The Federal Government provides a wide range of information from a variety of sources that we the people can access on the internet. I found a list of crude oil prices going back to 1978. You can follow along by downloading the table of prices at the Energy Information Administration. For our purposes, lets concentrate on July of this year. These numbers are provided on a weekly basis and the price for the week of July 4 was the highest reported ever: $133.60. I'm sure I heard at some point that oil had reached $144/barrel so I think this table is weighted but I believe it will work for our purposes. Let's look at the drop in price from July 4- Sept. 30, 2008. The last price reported before 9/30 is $97.90. This is actually higher than the two previous weeks listed. So at this point it appears that oil has bottomed out and is headed back up. But let's look just at the price drop. The oil price dropped an average of 2.25%/week during that time. That's a total of 27%. Then the ban expires on 9/30. Over the last two reporting periods (the only ones we have at this point), the price dropped an additional $17! That's a drop of 17% in just two weeks, four times the previous rate!! Coincidence?
So what, you may ask. Well. . .think back to early summer when this all started to hit the fan, we were told by Mr. Obama and his Democrat friends that we, "can't drill our way out of this." As I have detailed before on this blog, as soon as the President announced his rescension of the executive order banning offshore drilling, the price started to drop. That is to say, the market reacted. As I said at that time, the market has a way of responding even before the first well has been drilled. The market is anticipating what the price will be and reacting to it. This is market economics at its finest. Don't forget, the price of oil was going back UP when the ban was lifted and then started to drop at an alarming rate. Who knows where the bottom is but I don't think anyone is taking the lifting of the ban into account. Of course, there are many variables at work, just as there were at the time when the price started skyrocketing, but the notion at that time was that there was nothing we could do to lower the price. Here we are just a few months later and the price is dropping.
I'm not sure if the expiration of the ban will result in actual drilling anytime soon, but the fact that Congress is unwilling to reinstate the ban shows that the political winds are changing and it is only a matter of time before the drills are turning. This is another big issue in this election. After initially opposing it, Barack says we can "look at" some offshore drilling. McCain/Palin are all for offshore drilling. The key is going to be the legal challenges that any oil company will face from the various environmental groups who no doubt want to keep the oil from flowing here in the states. (That's why the ban was in place for the last 30 years in the first place!) Now the folks in the middle east are freaking out because they are seeing their profits plummet. Who knows how long the drop will last but it is a fascinating time and a good lesson in market economics. Supply and demand rule the day!
The Federal Government provides a wide range of information from a variety of sources that we the people can access on the internet. I found a list of crude oil prices going back to 1978. You can follow along by downloading the table of prices at the Energy Information Administration. For our purposes, lets concentrate on July of this year. These numbers are provided on a weekly basis and the price for the week of July 4 was the highest reported ever: $133.60. I'm sure I heard at some point that oil had reached $144/barrel so I think this table is weighted but I believe it will work for our purposes. Let's look at the drop in price from July 4- Sept. 30, 2008. The last price reported before 9/30 is $97.90. This is actually higher than the two previous weeks listed. So at this point it appears that oil has bottomed out and is headed back up. But let's look just at the price drop. The oil price dropped an average of 2.25%/week during that time. That's a total of 27%. Then the ban expires on 9/30. Over the last two reporting periods (the only ones we have at this point), the price dropped an additional $17! That's a drop of 17% in just two weeks, four times the previous rate!! Coincidence?
So what, you may ask. Well. . .think back to early summer when this all started to hit the fan, we were told by Mr. Obama and his Democrat friends that we, "can't drill our way out of this." As I have detailed before on this blog, as soon as the President announced his rescension of the executive order banning offshore drilling, the price started to drop. That is to say, the market reacted. As I said at that time, the market has a way of responding even before the first well has been drilled. The market is anticipating what the price will be and reacting to it. This is market economics at its finest. Don't forget, the price of oil was going back UP when the ban was lifted and then started to drop at an alarming rate. Who knows where the bottom is but I don't think anyone is taking the lifting of the ban into account. Of course, there are many variables at work, just as there were at the time when the price started skyrocketing, but the notion at that time was that there was nothing we could do to lower the price. Here we are just a few months later and the price is dropping.
I'm not sure if the expiration of the ban will result in actual drilling anytime soon, but the fact that Congress is unwilling to reinstate the ban shows that the political winds are changing and it is only a matter of time before the drills are turning. This is another big issue in this election. After initially opposing it, Barack says we can "look at" some offshore drilling. McCain/Palin are all for offshore drilling. The key is going to be the legal challenges that any oil company will face from the various environmental groups who no doubt want to keep the oil from flowing here in the states. (That's why the ban was in place for the last 30 years in the first place!) Now the folks in the middle east are freaking out because they are seeing their profits plummet. Who knows how long the drop will last but it is a fascinating time and a good lesson in market economics. Supply and demand rule the day!
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